It was a down week for me on the college football slate last weekend, but admittedly, I was due for some bad luck. Entering this week, I am 57-44-4 overall. Here's my picks for tonight and Friday.
Virginia at Miami (Under 63, Miami -6)
Virginia travels down to Miami riding two straight losses. I was all over Wake Forest in their matchup last week at Virginia, so can the Cavaliers get back on track this week? Well, history says no. The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games against Virginia.
However, Virginia is 3-2 ATS in the last five games in this matchup. These two teams last played in October last season. Virginia covered the 13.5 point spread as an underdog. Miami opened as 2.5 point favorites and it has moved in Miami's favor by almost four points. Virginia has yet to win a conference game while this is Miami's first ACC matchup. Miami is 1-3 ATS this season, but have won six of their last seven against Virginia. The last time Virginia won at Miami was in 2011. I like Miami to keep the Cavaliers woes going.
As far as the total, both teams in three of their four games played, respectively, have gone under. The last two games against each other have been very low scoring totals. Virginia's last four games against non-ranked teams have gone under. Four of the last five games between these two teams have gone under. I like that trend to keep going.
Houston at Tulsa (Houston +5, Houston +160, Under 54.5)
Houston heads to Tulsa as road underdogs despite a 3-1 record, but their schedule has been much softer than Tulsa's. The Golden Hurricanes are 1-3, but two of those losses are against Ohio State and Oklahoma State.
That doesn't bother me, however. Tulsa is not good ATS when they are favorites. Underdogs are 9-1 ATS the last 10 games at Chapman Stadium. Houston has also won four of the last five matchups against Tulsa.
This is Houston's chance to prove they are a decent team and while the Cougars' pass defense has been solid, the test will be against the run game of the Golden Hurricanes. Against Arkansas State, Tulsa totaled 308 yards on the ground, which leads me on the under. Seven of Tulsa's last eight games against teams from Texas have gone under. The under has hit in three consecutive games between these teams and four of the last five overall.
Iowa at Maryland (Iowa -3, Under 48)
Two undefeated Big Ten teams meet on Friday night in College Park. One team will leave with a loss, and I think Maryland will be that team.
Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season but Maryland has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against top-15 ranked opponents. Iowa has won the last two matchups. Iowa has also played a much tougher schedule, defeating Iowa State and Maryland but struggled against a very bad Illinois team. I expect this to be a defensive battle, like most Big Ten games are. But, Iowa is used to being in this position.
The last six October games have gone under the point total in Iowa's matchups. The under is 7-1 combined between these two teams this season. The under has hit each time in Iowa's matchups.
BYU at Utah State (Over 61.5)
Both these teams love to score points when they play each other, especially the winner. In four of the last five games, the winner has scored more than 40 points. All of those games went over the point total. Each of Utah State's last four home games against teams from Utah have gone over.
BYU is 1-3 on the over this season but Utah State is allowing 29.8 points per game while averaging 28 points per game. We cheer for lots of points Friday night.