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On Tap Bets: College Football Picks for Sept. 3

With a solid slate of college football games on Friday, here are three picks to kick the weekend off with gambling success.
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I finished Thursday evening with a 2-2-1 record in betting picks. All things considered, it could have been worse.

Let's strive for a better mark tonight.

UNC at Virginia Tech (VA Tech +5.5, Over 64)

One thing is certain when it comes to both of these teams: they know how to score.

Virginia Tech has averaged 40.6 points per game against North Carolina under head coach Justin Fuente. No. 10 UNC returns potential top pick quarterback Sam Howell, who threw 30 touchdowns last season, to lead the Tar Heels. That figure led the ACC and ranked sixth in the nation.

Howell has a touchdown pass in all 25 games he's played in a UNC uniform. He's thrown multiple touchdown passes in 21 of the 25 games. UNC was also ninth in the nation in scoring in 2020. If you like cheering for points, this one seems like a good one. After all, the final score last season was 56-45 in favor of UNC.

The over-under opened at 67 points. It's dropped to as low as 62.5 on FanDuel.

Virginia Tech is 6-3 at home against UNC in all-time. The last time the Tar Heels won at Virginia Tech was in 2015. The spread opened at 6.5 and has now dropped to 5.5 on most books.

Perhaps UNC is due for a road victory. On the other hand, the Hokies may continue their home dominance against the Tar Heels. I'm taking the over and I believe this will be a close contest.

South Dakota at Kansas (South Dakota +13.5, South Dakota +385)

Kansas went winless in 2020, finishing 0-9 and at the bottom of the Big 12. In their defense, Kansas played one non-conference game in 2020 against Coastal Carolina, which again, didn't matter as they lost 38-23 at home.

Kansas hasn't played in a bowl game since 2008. They haven't won a game since October of 2019. It is clear their program is one of the worst among FBS schools.

South Dakota went 1-3 before canceling the rest of the spring season.

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However, the Coyotes are 6-0 ATS when playing on turf while Kansas is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 overall, including 0-4 ATS against teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. Kansas is also 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.

The spread for this game opened at 15.5 points favoring the Jayhawks but it has dropped to 13.5 on most books.

This feels like a trap game for new head coach Lance Leipold and the Jayhawks as they face off against Coastal Carolina next week. Leipold, who sports a 146-39 coaching record and recent success at Buffalo, seems to have the goods to turn the program in the right direction, but that will take time.

Kansas also lists three co-starters at quarterback on their depth chart, which means they are still figuring out their plan offensively.

Kansas is 2-0 all-time in this matchup, but I'm slamming the Coyotes.

Michigan State at Northwestern (Northwestern -3, Under 45.5)

The Wildcats are fresh off a Big Ten Championship appearance, where they gave Ohio State everything they had, and they followed that with a blowout bowl victory over Auburn. That 2020 success led to a massive contract extension for head coach Pat Fitzgerald.

Northwestern went 4-0 at Ryan Field last season, which included a shocking upset over No. 10 Wisconsin. They are 11-4 in home openers under Fitzgerald.

The Spartans were one of the worst offensive teams in the country in 2020, while Northwestern ranked fifth in the country in points allowed (15.9).

However, Michigan State has won six of its last seven at Northwestern. They also handed the Wildcats their only loss of 2020 in East Lansing. Furthermore, the Spartans added 20 new transfers, including five from the SEC to try and ramp up a quick rebuild.

The spread opened at 6.5 and has dropped to 3 points. The over-under opened at 45 and hasn't budged.

There's no telling what the Spartans offense will look like, and Northwestern's defense will likely hold strong for most of this game. I like the under and the Wildcats to get revenge for last season's defeat.

via Tallysight

via Tallysight

That's it for today's picks. Make sure to follow @OnTapBets on Twitter for more gambling content from On Tap Sports Net.