We’re really starting to get on a roll here at On Tap Bets. Last night, I went a perfect 3-0 on the picks I gave out on Twitter. It looks like the stove has turned on. Let’s keep it rolling tonight with my favorite bets between the NBA and college basketball.
Stephen Curry to Make 2+ Threes in the First Quarter (+150 on FanDuel)
The Golden State Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back after narrowly defeating the Indiana Pacers 102-100. With only two three-pointers needed to break Ray Allen’s NBA record for most three-pointers made, Curry and the gang will be hungry tonight. Ray Allen will be in attendance, along with Reggie Miller, who will serve as the color analyst for TNT. Miller was in attendance as the color analyst when Allen broke his record in 2011.
Being at the Mecca of Basketball -- Madison Square Garden in New York -- what better setting for Curry to break the record than tonight? At the rate he shoots threes, and will undoubtedly tonight, I expect him to break the record in the first quarter. Also, there’s a possibility the Warriors let off the gas once he breaks the record since it is the second night of a back-to-back. FanDuel is running a nice little promotional boost, so let’s take advantage of it.
Minnesota -15 (-110 on DraftKings)
When the Golden Gophers are playing at home, my eyes are always open. Williams Arena is never an easy place for a visitor to play, especially when the Gophers are playing as well as they are to start the season. After nearly covering against Michigan State in their last home game, they defeated the Michigan Wolverines on the road on Saturday. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is off to a fiery 9-1 start to the season, but they haven’t played many quality opponents. Their most difficult opponent was Texas A&M and the Aggies blew them out by 21 points at College Station.
KenPom has the Aggies ranked 64th while the Golden Gophers are 69th. Further enhancing the point, KenPom has the Islanders listed as playing the ninth-easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. This feels like not enough points for a Minnesota team that turns the ball over at the second-lowest rate per game. A lot of the Islanders’ success comes off turnovers, sitting 11th-best in takeaways per game. Back the Gophers. I’d play it to -16.
Grambling State @ UAB Over 135.5 (-112 BetRivers)
These two teams combine for just over 145 points per game. UAB ranks 19th in the country with 83.1 points per game. They both run at a fairly fast pace as well, ranking 126th and 131st in adjusted tempo, respectively, according to KenPom. The Blazers have the third-most takeaways per game in the country (21.3). Meanwhile, Grambling comes in with the seventh-most turnovers per game (16.7).
I don’t see a scenario in which the Tigers win this game over UAB, but my numbers don’t align to take the Blazers on the spread. Therefore, I’m taking the over on the total in a game I expect the Blazers to rack up quick buckets and force the Tigers to play more uptempo. I’d play this number to 137.5.
- Sam Houston State +11
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Over 134.5
Good luck, and let's win some cash. Follow me on Twitter @Theriot326 for the rest of my picks.