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On Tap Bets: Thursday Night Football and College Basketball Picks for Dec. 9

Two college basketball bets and an honorable mention, along with a Thursday Night Football prop headline out latest On Tap Bets piece.
Gambling Picks

Photo: On Tap Sports Net

We are keeping it moving here at On Tap Bets! Last night, we fell one point short of a 3-1 night. Thanks for nothing, Minnesota. Let's get right back in the win column. We have fewer college basketball games than the past two nights, but I still think there are some edges to exploit. Also, there's a prop bet for tonight's Thursday Night Football game to keep your attention on. Let's jump in.

College Basketball

North Carolina State Team Total Over 80.5 (-114)

The Wolfpack head into this matchup fresh off their first home loss of the season, losing to Louisville 73-68 on Saturday. Carrying a 5-1 home record as 24.5-point favorites, I’d imagine the Wolfpack are hungry to bounce back tonight. The spread is a little high for my liking, so I’ll attack this another way.

Bethune-Cookman has one of the worst defenses in college basketball, ranking 305th in points per game with 75.5 allowed. KenPom ranks them sixth-worst in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Conversely, NC State ranks 56th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Additionally, Bethune-Cookman lost 81-45 to UCF on Sunday. Because the game got out of hand, UCF didn’t need to step on the gas. I don’t expect the Wolfpack to slow up tonight.

The Wolfpack rank similarly to UCF in adjusted tempo, and they are eight spots better in adjusted offensive efficiency. Bank on their leading scorer Dereon Seabron to have a bounce-back game. He shot only 4-of-13 from the floor against Lousiville, but he averages 20.4 per game. I’d play this number up to 81.5.

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Denver @ New Mexico Over 144.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

New Mexico is coming off a tough loss to rival New Mexico State. With his back turned to the basket in overtime, Nate Pryor flipped a shot over his head into the basket to knock off the Lobos at the buzzer. I’ll share it below so that you can see how ridiculous it was.

As for this game, the Denver Pioneers come in with a 3-7 record as losers of four straight games. Their offense has been subpar, averaging 66.2 points per game. Nonetheless, they are 7-1 ATS this season, covering at an 87.5 percent clip. However, New Mexico also does an excellent job ATS, covering 71.4 percent. Something has to give. One thing both of these teams have in common is the over. Overs are a combined 11-5 in games involving New Mexico or Denver, a 68.75 percent rate.

While Denver only averages 66.2 points per game, New Mexico ranks 33rd, averaging 82 points. The two teams combine for 148.2 points per game, about four points above the total. Another thing I looked at was tempo. New Mexico is fourth in the country in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. Denver is only 250th, but they are relatively efficient on the offensive end, especially from long range. The Pioneers rank 115th, shooting 35.23 percent from beyond the arc.

Morehead State transfer KJ Hunt leads Denver with 16.2 points per game. Former NBA standout Jamal Mashburn’s son, Jamal Mashburn Jr., leads the Lobos with 21 points per game. I’m banking on both teams bouncing back and the Lobos’ pace of play dictating this game. I think Denver can shoot efficiently enough, given that the Lobos allow opponents to shoot 33.9 percent from three. My line is 150, so I’d play this up to 146.

Thursday Night Football

Diontae Johnson Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on FanDuel)

Johnson has a strong connection with Ben Roethlisberger, and he’s been rolling lately. The third-year wideout out from Toledo has gone over this number in each of his last four games, including five of his previous six. The Minnesota Vikings allow the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. I see no reason to believe Johnson won’t go over this number again.

Honorable Mention: Iowa State +5

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