Is There A Chance Willson Contreras Accepts the Cubs' Qualifying Offer?

Don't you love MLB hot stove season? We haven't quite reached that time of year, yet I'm itching for the rumor mill to start swirling. With Monday night's Game 3 of the World Series postponement, I got a chance to dive deep into some baseball thoughts. Among those thoughts were what the Chicago Cubs would do at the catcher position now that Willson Contreras will become a free agent shortly after the World Series concludes.

It seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Jed Hoyer already mentioned in his end-of-season press conference that the Cubs will make Contreras a qualifying offer. The offer the Cubs present to Willson will be a formality, only to retrieve a compensatory draft pick after the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft.

That's where I had to stop. I started wondering about Contreras's value on the open market, how often the qualifying offer is accepted, and if there's an outside chance that he will return to the Cubs.

This Year's Qualifying Offer

Joel Sherman of the New York Post and MLB Network reported that this offseason's qualifying offer price will be $19.65 million, rising from last year's $18.4 million figure.

If he hope is Willson Contreras will accept the offer, history is working against the Cubs. Out of 110 players who have received qualifying offers through the 2021 season, only 11 have accepted. Last season, only Brandon Belt accepted the qualifying offer of $18.4 million.

Matt Wieters in 2015 with the Baltimore Orioles was the last time a catcher accepted the offer. Wieters took the $15.8 million offer for the 2016 season. There could be some similarities between Contreras and Wieters.

Contreras spent most of September on the 10-day injured list due to a left ankle injury. Wieters underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and only played 75 games to round out the 2015 season. He hit .267 with eight homers and a 101 OPS+. Clearly, Wieters thought he could boost his stock by playing an entire season under the $15.8 million price tag.

Teams used to pay more for what a player did than what they were projected to do. Contreras has never won a Gold Glove, which won't affect his market price now. However, at the time, Wieters already had two Gold Glove Awards under his belt (2011 and 2012).

Gold Gloves were viewed in higher regard before the Statcast era and all the advancements with pitch-tracking to where the game is currently. It had to be something brought up in negotiations by his agent. Lending one to believe Wieters was still valued relatively high when considering his offensive impact, even after an injury-abbreviated season. Apparently, he felt risking a year under the qualifying offer was worth the potential reward of a more significant contract.

Also, another criticism of Wieters draws a parallel with Contreras. There was talk about Wieters and his inability to handle a pitching staff correctly during the 2015 season. Where they differ, following Tommy John surgery, Wieters struggled to throw runners out (31% CS in 2015, down from 39% in 2012 and 37% in 2011). Contreras has an absolute cannon, BUT he did have the same 31 percent caught-stealing rate this year. The only difference is pitchers don't give a crap about holding runners on now.

Willson Contreras's Market

As it relates, to the price tag of that offer, what's his expected market?

J.T. Realmuto received a record-setting $23.1 million a year from the Philadelphia Phillies ahead of the 2021 season. It was the largest contract ever for a catcher. As seen this postseason, he's a contributor both with the bat and behind the plate, defensively. It took him some time to become a good pitch framer, but he became above average during his last season in Miami. Also, Realmuto is well-known as one of the best at throwing out runners, with an incredible 100th percentile pop time to second base. He's widely considered the best all-around catcher in the game.

Ahead of the 2020 season, Yasmani Grandal signed a four-year, $73 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. Making $18.25 million per year, it was the largest contract in franchise history at the time. Grandal was coming off back-to-back seasons with wRC+ over 120 and was a consistently elite pitch-framer. The switch-hitting 31-year-old backstop hit 28 homers with a ridiculous .380 OBP in 2019 with the Brewers. He was also second in Catcher Framing Runs (13), a stat that converts strikes to runs saved.

Where Willson Contreras matches up with the two in terms of the type of contract he desires is on the offensive side. In 113 games played, Contreras finished the 2022 season with 22 home runs, 55 RBIs, and a .243/.349/.466 (.815 OPS) slash line. The .815 OPS ranked third in the NL among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. Only J.T. Realmuto (.820 OPS) and Willson’s brother, William Contreras (.860 OPS), were higher.

Contreras ranked 90th percentile or better in the following categories - Max Exit Velocity, Hard Hit rate, and xwOBA. The batted ball metrics are a big reason he was named a finalist for the NL Silver Slugger Award at the catcher position.

Like Grandal when he signed with the White Sox, Contreras will be 31 years old next season. Unlike Grandal and Realmuto, Willson's framing has always been up and down. It was really good in 2020 and 2021, and then it tailed off again this past year (27th percentile). Also, teams have questions about his ability to call games and manage a pitching staff. Teams will use that in negotiations regardless of what I think (those issues are overblown a bit).

Verdict

I wonder if Willson Contreras will get more than $19.65 million on the open market. I'm not sure that he will. If I had to guess, his value is closer to $18 million AAV. Obviously, contract security and his feelings toward the Chicago Cubs’ front office, possibly feeling disrespected for not getting a contract extension offer, play into this.

If I had to guess, he's probably still opting out, but I wonder if he'll get the contract he wants. Jon Heyman reported in June that Contreras would likely seek a five-year $100 million-plus deal. However, his value could've decreased a little since then. From the start of July to the end of the season, Contreras hit .186 with nine home runs and an 89 wRC+. A five-year deal worth $100 million ($20 million AAV) isn't all that much more than $19.65 million for one season. It isn't that farfetched to think Contreras might return.

The Cubs have a clear spot for him in their lineup. He's always said how he loves Chicago and wants to remain on the North Side. Maybe, just maybe, he accepts the qualifying offer. Cue the "so, you're saying there's a chance" GIF…