Some would call yesterday a national holiday, I just call it my birthday. I don’t know who “some” are, so don’t ask! Even with all of the shenanigans that took place, I couldn’t take a week off.
We only get so many weeks of football, and only so many weeks to take advantage of some solid edges. This week’s slate is packed. The only thing missing is my Chicago Bears, which admittedly, might not be a bad thing for my mental health. Nonetheless, I’ve locked in on some wagers I really like for today’s action. Good luck, and let’s make some cash.
Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds mentioned are as of the time of writing and subject to change.
Cordarrelle Patterson Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-106)
Head coach Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons have used Patterson in multiple ways to take advantage of his explosiveness in space. While they’ve found success with Patterson, the most success has come when using Patterson in the receiving game.
On the season, Flash averages 9.1 rushing attempts per game. Over the last two games, he’s had exactly nine rushing attempts in each for a total of 18 carries. With those attempts, he’s averaged on 2.5 yards per carry. Looking at that production, it’s safe to assume that’s not going to get him MORE rushing attempts, it’s going to get him fewer. I like him to go Under 10.5 rushing attempts, and I would play it as low as 9.5.
Michael Carter Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Carter’s increased workload over the last few weeks hasn’t gone unnoticed, especially among the fantasy football community. He’s a young promising running back and he has a higher ceiling playing behind better quarterback play from Mike White. Now that he’s seemingly taken over the reins in New York, we should be able to capitalize on some fishy prop lines.
The Bills rank among the league’s best run-stopping units at third in rush defense DVOA. Be that as it may, they still allow almost 65 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. It’s not too much to ask of Carter to get at least 45 or so rushing yards.
Tom Brady Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on FanDuel)
Brady has always been a pocket passer. At 44 years old, he's only getting less mobile. However, he still gets the occasional one- to two-yard pickups, and he is one of the best in the business at quarterback sneaks.
In six of his eight games played this season, Brady has had at least one rushing yard. The only thing real concern is if the Bucs are in victory formation at the end of the game and he only has one or two rushing yards, turning this prop victory into a loser by kneeling a couple of times for negative yardage. Nonetheless, with only one rushing yard needed for us to cash, let’s take the chance. Who knows, maybe he’s feeling a little extra spry fresh off the bye week. If it doesn’t cash, oh well, at least it’s going to be a fun one to monitor.
T.J. Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions (+126 on FanDuel)
For the most part, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been pretty solid against opposing tight ends. They have allowed 4.8 catches per game to tight ends. However, some of their numbers are skewed due to the talent and involvement level of the opposing teams’ tight ends. On Monday Night Football, the Bears were able to exploit them. Between Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham, the Bears tight ends had seven catches for 115 yards.
As for this game, no one gets more targets than Hockenson in the Lions' offense. In fact, Hockenson ranks tied for fourth among all tight ends with a team-leading 64 targets. He would be even higher on the list, but he’s played in at least one fewer game than everyone ahead of him. With the plus-money value we’re getting, I’m taking a shot. Maybe the Bears put enough on tape for Dan Campbell and the Lions to work with and they can get Hockenson the ball with regularity today.
- Ricky Seals-Jones Over 3.5 Receptions (+112)
- Tyreek Hill Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-114)