Welcome back. Last week, I decided to dedicate the weekly prop bets article to the Bears vs. Packers game. We didn't quite hit a home run but went 3-2. That's a winning week. After two straight 3-2 weeks, the season record is starting to get back on track. Let's keep it going. Here are my favorite prop bets for Week 7.
Last week: 3-2
Disclaimer: All betting odds are courtesy of BetRivers unless stated otherwise. All lines and odds mentioned are as of the time of writing and subject to change.
Derrick Henry Under 142.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Let's go ahead and get the nasty one out of the way first. Derrick Henry is probably the scariest downhill running back on the planet, and no one is putting up the numbers he is right now. With that said, he's gotten off to an unsustainably hot start to the season. Yes, he's going to have massive games, and he should have another great game against the Kansas City Chiefs today, but I believe Vegas is setting his number closer to his ceiling than his mean projection.
Tennessee could very well find themselves trailing in the second half, which will force them to throw the ball more. Henry is receiving more targets this year and producing that way, but the Chiefs will get defensive lineman Chris Jones back. As bad as they are against the run, they've faced good rushing quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen. Justin Herbert even found some success scrambling against them. If you count only rushing yards allowed vs. opposing running backs, they allow just over 86 yards per game compared to 133.2 total rushing yards per game.
It's a scary bet, but I like Henry to go under his combined rushing + receiving yards number. DO NOT BET THIS INDIVIDUALLY. Don't take either his rushing or receiving yards under by itself.
Julio Jones Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
During the On Tap Bets live stream on Friday night, I leaned more on A.J. Brown's Over for receiving yards.
I still don't mind that, but with Julio Jones now expected to play, his yardage prop seems lower than it should be. If we expect this game to be high scoring, like the Vegas total tells us it will be, someone will produce through the air for the Titans as underdogs. Jones had three catches for 59 yards against Buffalo, a defense that ranks first in pass DVOA. Kansas City ranks 31st (second-worst) in pass DVOA. I'll take a shot here. It also plays into the story I'm telling myself about how this game will play out, and it correlates with my fading of Henry's prop.
Ricky Seals-Jones Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Ricky Seals-Jones has been getting more involved in Washington's offense since taking over the starting tight end role. He played 100 percent of the team's offensive snaps a week ago and has 15 targets over the last two weeks with at least four catches and 41 yards in each of the previous two games. Washington could find themselves needing to throw down the stretch as heavy underdogs traveling to Lambeau Field. Someone has to catch the ball, and Seals-Jones is as good of a bet to do it as any.
Justin Fields Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
As run-heavy as the Bears offense has been with Justin Fields under center, it could be tough sledding for the Bears against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game by a wide margin (54.8 yards). The way you beat them is through the air.
However, the Bears' offensive line still has issues, and Tampa Bay could get pressure on Fields today. After carrying the ball six times for 43 yards last week, I think he's getting more comfortable venturing out of the pocket and scrambling for yards when needed. If he faces a fair amount of pressure today, I expect him to run for some first downs and smash this over. It might be the only way the Bears get the ball moving on the ground.
Alvin Kamara Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 🔒 LOCK OF THE WEEK 🔒
Maybe, just maybe, the Saints will realize what kind of talent Kamara is and how important it is that he gets the ball in open space. Throughout his career, Kamara has averaged 45.2 receiving yards per game. After getting zero targets against the New York Giants, he had eight and caught five passes for 51 yards last week, which was a season-high in all categories.
Maybe there were some chemistry issues with Jameis Winston under center at first, but Sean Payton should realize how important getting Kamara the ball in space is. I have to believe he will do all he can to get him the ball, especially coming off a bye week. The Seahawks have allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. It all lines up for me. I'm putting two units on this bet.